The period from the 12^th to the 15^th centuries is the time of the orthodoxization of Islamic thought. Global events such as the Crusader and Mongol invasions that struck the Islamic world during this period required reflection by both their contemporaries and historians who wrote about this age in subsequent centuries. Trying to explain these ground shaking challenges, Muslim intellectuals gave them various explanations, both materialistic and mystical.

In this regard, it is essential to investigate the correlation between the concepts of omen and time, as well as the causal relationships built by the authors of historical narratives in these instances. In this study omens refer to the supernatural association of events that do not follow ordinary logic. The medieval mind sees causal connections where there is merely a random sequence of events. When analyzing Islamic historical writing, omens are of interest in the context of exploring the concepts of present and future, and cause-and-effect relations within the space-time continuum.

The aim of this study is to investigate the vocabulary used to refer to omens, the temporal relationship between an omen and the event that it foretells, as well as the causal connections that are established. To achieve this, it is proposed to categorize examples of omens according to a multidimensional understanding of time and a typology of omens within medieval Arab-Islamic culture. The study of omens is significant for comprehending the worldview and spatial-temporal perception of medieval Muslims. However, the related topic of predestination will not be addressed in this study as it was discovered through analysis that the chroniclers did not mention predestination in the context of omens or establish causal links with it within the analyzed contexts.

To address this research problem, we examined the major chronicles that describe the events of the Crusades between 490 and 690 A.H. to identify contexts with lexemes denoting omens. For analysis, eight chronicles produced during the period of the Crusades and prior to the 15^th century were selected: al-Fatḥ al-qussī fī al-fatḥ al-qudsī (Eloquent Exposition of the Conquest of Jerusalem) by ‘Imа̄d al-Dīn al-Iṣfahа̄nī (1125–1201) [al-Iṣfahа̄nī, s.d.], al-Nawа̄dir al-sulṭа̄niyya wa al-maḥа̄sin al-yūsufiyya (Sultanic Anecdotes and Yusufi Virtues) by Bahа̄’ al-Dīn Ibn Shaddа̄d (1145–1234) [Ibn Shaddа̄d, 2015], al-Muntaẓam fī ta’rīkh al-mulūk wa al-umam (The Systematic History of Kings and Nations) by Abū al-Faraj Ibn al-Jawzī (1116–1201) [Ibn al-Jawzī, 1995], al-Kāmil fī al-ta’rīkh (The Complete History) by ‘Alī Ibn al-Athīr (1160–1233) [Ibn al-Athīr, s.d.], Kitāb al-sulūk li ma‘rifat duwal al-mulūk (The Book of Ways to Knowledge of the Ruling Dynasties) by Taqī al-Dīn al-Maqrīzī (1364–1442) [al-Maqrīzī, 1997], ‘Iqd al-jumān fī ta’rīkh ahl al-zamān (The Pearl Necklace of the People's Era) by Badr al-Dīn al-‘Aynī (1360–1451) [al-‘Aynī, 2010[1], 2010[2]], al-Nujūm al-zāhira fī mulūk miṣr wa al-qāhira (The Shining Stars about the Kings of Egypt and Cairo) by Abū al-Maḥāsin Ibn Taghrī Birdī (1411–1470) [Ibn Taghrī Birdī, 1976] and al-Uns al-jalīl bi-ta’rīkh al-quds wa al-khalīl (The glorious history of Jerusalem and Hebron) by Mujīr al-Dīn al-‘Ulaymī (1456–1522) [al-‘Ulaymī, 1999]. It is important to note that we have not considered Kitāb al-i‘tibār (The Book of Contemplation) by Usāma ibn Munqidh (1095–1188), which is another significant source on the history of the Crusades and contains numerous contexts about omens, as this monument belongs to the genre of adab literature, rather than historical chronicles.

There are not many works devoted to the concept of time in medieval Arab-Muslim cultures. Among them are: [Stowasser, 2014] and [Talmon-Heller, 2020]. It is worth noting the work specifically dedicated to the concept of time in Arabic-Islamic medieval historiography [Al-Azmeh, 2007]. In order to identify the place of the omens considered in the chronicles in the Muslim tradition, the attitude to this phenomenon in the Quran and hadith as paradigm-modeling texts of Islamic culture was studied. Prophetic revelation and divination in Islam are well studied, but mainly in the context of Muhammad’s prophetic experience [Izutsu, 2002], [Zwettler, 1990]. The divinatory practices of the Arabs, both pre-Islamic and related to Islamic times, are described in the monograph [Fahd, 1966]. This work is an important contribution to the study of the omens and fortune-telling in Arab-Muslim culture in diachrony. A fruitful collection of articles edited by Ozgen Felek and Alexander D. Knysh [Felek, Knysh (ed.), 2010] is of little use because it deals specifically with human dreams, but not omens from the outer world.

As for the studies of the Crusades, omens in Arabic sources of this epoch were practically not considered as a specific issue. Al-Amin Abouseada in his article ‘Supernatural Powers in Christian-Muslim Warfare. Crusades and Beyond’ mentions omens on the Muslim side only in relation to religious zeal of sufis during the battles against infidels, which was seen as a good sign [Abouseada, 2009, p. 116]. All of the above circumstances make it relevant to study omens in the Islamic chronicles of the Crusades.

Omens in the medieval islamic culture

Islamic culture is heavily reliant on written texts, and therefore, it is also essential to provide a brief historical overview of the usage of the terms denoting omens within the historical context. It is crucial to understand how these lexical items are used in the Quran and hadiths, as fundamental sources of Islamic culture that shape and define its central concepts and semantic categories. The Quran, in particular, presents a narrative of human history from the creation of the universe to the Day of Judgment. Hadiths, on the other hand, are significant historical texts as they were based on oral traditions about Muhammad’s life during the early Islamic period, upon which Muslim historians in later times relied upon. At the same time, the Quran and the hadiths largely reflect the beliefs about omens and fortune-telling practices which were common in pre-Islamic times.

The most common term for ‘sign’ in the Quran is aya, which later became a technical term in Arab-Islamic culture, referring to a verse of the Quranic text. It is no longer used in its original sense of ‘sign’ in everyday life. In the Quran, there are no derivatives of the roots f-’-l, and y-m-n in the context of prophecies and portents. The root ṭ-y-r is employed in the relevant context only three times, all within the same lexical item (verb taṭyyara) and in the same setting: the disbelievers to whom prophets were sent perceived their appearance as a bad omen. This occurs for Mūsā and the people of Pharaoh (7:131), for Ṣāliḥ and the Thamūd (27:47), and also for two unnamed prophets sent to the people of the two villages (36:18). It is a clear reference to the experiences of Muhammad himself and how his prophetic mission was received by the people of Mecca. The pagan inhabitants of Mecca perceived him in a clearly negative way and accused him of being a soothsayer (kāhin), a poet (shā‘ir) or a possessed (majnūn). Thus, this term is used within the context of the history of humanity as presented in the Quran, that is, as a series of divine revelations given to different nations and communities. This raises the question of the relationship between omens and the course of historical events.

When analyzing hadiths regarding omens, it is worth noting that the belief in bad omens (ṭiyara/ṭīra) is discouraged, and reliance on God (tawakkul) is encouraged. The belief in omens is considered to be associated with pagan practices. For instance: al-ṭīra shirk wa mā minnā wa lakinna Allāhu yudhhibuhu bi al-tawakkul (Paying attention to the bad omen is association. It has nothing to do with us. Allah will remove it by reliance on Him) [Al-Bukhārī, 1989, ṣ. 313]. However, an exception is made for some types of omens (fa’l): lā ‘adwā wa lā al-ṭiyara wa yu‘jibunī al-fa’l qālū wa mā al-fa’l qāl kalima ṭayyiba ([The Prophet said], “No*‘adwā* (contagious disease) nor ṭiyara (bad omens); but I like fa’l.” They said, “What is the fa’l?” He said, “A good word.”) [Al-Bukhārī, 1993, vol. 5, ṣ. 2178].

The negative attitude towards the belief in omens is explained, among other things, by their connection with pre-Islamic fortune-telling practices. The very term ṭiyara / ṭīra, meaning ‘bad omen’, as well as the corresponding verb taṭayyara, dates back to the practice of divination by the flight of birds, while taking into account the direction of their flight: if a flock of birds, alarmed by the cry of the fortune-teller, flew to the right, it was regarded as a favorable omen, and if to the left, as a negative one [Larsen, 2010, p. 26]. It is also appropriate to mention the term fa’l, which also refers to fortune-telling through the flight of birds. According to T. Fahd, the distinction between fa’l and zajr is that for the former, the spontaneous flight of the birds is analyzed, whereas in the latter, the birds were driven away by shouting [Fahd, 1966, p. 36].

Some terminological confusion here is remarkable, since later, the word ṭīra, according to T. Fahd, began to mean a bad omen, and fa’l – a good one [Fahd, 1966, p. 436], Therefore, fa’l encourages action, and ṭīra pushes towards refraining from action [Fahd, 1966, p. 451]. A different interpretation of these terms is also of interest. Thus, T. Fahd divides pre-Islamic fortune-telling practices by signs into animals (‘omens animaux’), or ‘iyafa, where he referred to zajr and ṭīra, and human (‘omens humains’), namely, fa’l [Fahd, 1966, p. 431]. Nevertheless, as will be shown later, the term fa’l was later widely used for both positive and negative omens concerning a wide range of events and incidents.

There is also another term for only negative omens (shu’m). The effectiveness of bad omens (shu’m) is only partially recognized in the hadith: lā ‘adwā wa lā al-ṭīra wa shu’m fī thalātha fī al-mar’a wa al-dār wa al-dābba (There is neither contagious disease nor bad omens, but an evil omen may be in three a woman, a house or an animal) [Al-Bukhārī, 1993, vol. 5, ṣ. 2177]. The generally accepted explanation of the hadith distinguishes between the permissible form of omen (fa’l) and the unacceptable form (ṭīra): “There is no question of ornithomancy here, but of domestic foretellings that a man draws from the gestures and words of his wife, of the inhabitants of his house and of the tools and animals that are at his service. This is the ṭīra in its broadest sense, at his service.” [Fahd, 2002, p. 242].

Nevertheless, the hadiths as a whole give a fairly unambiguous answer regarding faith in omens: a Muslim should still not believe in them and make adjustments to his actions because of them, but should rely entirely on God. The following hadith is characteristic in this regard: dhukirat al-ṭīra ‘inda rasūl Allāh fa qāla aḥsanuha al-fa’l wa lā taruddu musliman fa idhā ra’ā aḥadukum mā yakruhu fa-l-yaqul Allāhumma lā ya’tī bi al-ḥasanāt illā anta wa lā yadfa‘u al-sayyi’āt illā anta wa lā ḥawl wa la quwwa illā bi Allāh (Taking omens was mentioned in the presence of God’s messenger and he replied: “The best type was the good omen, adding that a Muslim is not turned back from anything because of an omen. When any of you saw anything he disliked he should say, ‘O God, Thou alone bringest good things, Thou alone avertest evil things, and there is no might or power but in God!’ ”) [At-Tabrrīzī, 1979, ṣ. 1292].

Types of omens in the cronicles

First of all, it should be noted that in Islamic chronicles there are instances where the omen terms are not explicitly used, but rather the ideas of an event occurring in the future are implied. This is well illustrated by an example from al-‘Aẓīmī’s (1090–1161) treatise, which describes a bad omen foretelling the sudden strike of the First Crusade: Wa barazat al-faranj min bilādihim wa zuḥal fī al-sunbula [al-‘Aẓīmī, 1984, ṣ. 358] (And the Franks marched out of their lands, and Saturn was in Virgo). In this case, when talking about the events of 489 AH, the historian mentions the position of the planets, which became an ominous sign before the invasion of the Franks¹.

In most cases, however, omens are denoted by specific terms. During our analysis of the eight chronicles under consideration, we have found that the most number of contexts use the terms taṭayyara / taṭayyur / ṭīra, fa’ l / tafā’ala / tafā’ul and tayammana / tayammun. Moreover, the contexts in which omens occur can be clearly divided into positive and negative.

Fig. 1. Distribution of contexts

Fig. 2. Types of contexts

The first group of contexts, which makes more than a half of the total number of the examples found, is the one that contains terms taṭayyara / taṭayyur / ṭīra. This type always describes bad omens. As T. Fahd notes, “it is from this, it would seem, that the hostility displayed by the Prophet towards ṭīra arose, even while he was practicing and recommending fa’l. This also explains the baleful character which was assigned to it later. In fact, certain examples demonstrate that tira could be a good omen” [Fahd, 1991, p. 759]. Though the parts of the chronicles analysed in this article does not provide any positive contexts for the root ṭ-y-r.

The most illustrative examples of taṭayyara / taṭayyur / ṭīra are the following. Like al-‘Aẓīmī, Mujīr al-Dīn al-‘Ulaymī mentions a bad omen foretelling the First Crusade, but unlike the first, he uses a special lexeme: Wa fī sanat 452 saqaṭa tanūr qubbat al-ṣakhra bi bayt al-maqdis wa fīhi khamsumi’at qindil fa taṭayyara al-muqīmūn bihi min al-muslimīn wa qālū li yakūnanna fī al-islām ḥādith ‘aẓīm fa kāna akhdh al-faranj lahu ‘alā mā sanadhkuruhu [al-‘Ulaymī, 1999, vol. 1, ṣ. 443] (And in the year of 452 a chandelier in the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem fell and there were five hundred lamps in it, and the Muslim residents of it [Jerusalem] saw it as a bad omen, and they said: “Some terrible event must happen in the [lands of] Islam”, and the conquest of it [Jerusalem] by the Franks happened, which we will mention [later]).

These events took place in 1060, when the sudden fall of one of the chandeliers frightened the residents of Jerusalem, who perceived it as sign of the upcoming misfortunes [Talmon-Heller, 2020, p. 55]. For our study it is crucial that al-‘Ulaymī later specified that it was the Crusader invasion which was designated by this omen.

Another demonstrative example of a bad omen with the term taṭayyur is the sign that Ibn Shaddа̄d saw shortly before Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn's illness, which ended with his death: Wa qultu fī nafsī al-sulṭān yaṭlubu mā lā budda minhu fī ‘ādatihi wa lā yajiduhu wa waqa‘a fī qalbī taṭayyur bi dhalika [Ibn Shaddа̄d, 2015, ṣ. 183–184] (And I said to myself: “The Sultan asks for something that is always present, and does not find it”, and my heart perceived it as a bad omen).

Many instances of the use of this term are also directly linked to the struggle against the Crusaders. To illustrate, al-‘Aynī resorts to this lexeme, quoting Sibt ibn al-Jawzi, in describing the unsuccessful Mamluk assault on Cyprus in 1271, during the reign of Baybars I (1223–1277): Wa kāna ibn ḥassūn al-muqaddim qad ashāra bi ra’y taṭayyara al-nās minhu wa hiya an tuṭlā al-shawanī bi al-qār wa yu‘mal ‘alayhā al-ṣulbān li tushabbih ‘alā al-faranj bi shawanīhim fa yatamakkan mi mawanīhim fa iqtaḍā taghyīr shi‘arihā bimā arāda Allāh min inkisārihā [al-‘Aynī, 2010[2], vol. 2, ṣ. 74] (And the admiral Ibn Ḥassūn provided an idea, which the people saw as a bad omen. And it was to smear [the ships] with tar and make crosses on them, so they would look like the Frankish ships, and can enter their harbours. And the changing of their marking resulted in their wreck, as Allah willed).

The second group of contexts, which comprises terms based on the root f-’-l (fa’l / tafā’ala / tafā’ul), is equally divided between positive and negative portents. Therefore, it may be inferred that f-’-l in the chronicles denotes a causal connection between a sign in the present and an event in the future, while the nature of the occurrences imparts a negative or positive meaning.

Among instances of negative contexts for the use of lexemes with the abovementioned root is a narrative regarding events from 1193 that occurred immediately following the end of the Third Crusade. At that time, Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn was gravely ill, and his son, al-Malik al-Afḍal, sat on his throne, which was viewed by those who were present as a bad omen. Shortly thereafter, Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn passed away. As recounted by Ibn Shaddа̄d: Wa al-malik al-afḍal qad jalasa ‘alā mawḍi‘ihi fa inṣaraftu wa mā kāna lī quwwa ‘alā al-julūs istīḥāshan wa bakā jamā‘a tafa’ulan bi julūs walidihi fī mawḍi‘ihi thumma akhadha al-maraḍ fi tazāyud min ḥīna’idhin [Ibn Shaddа̄d, 2015, ṣ. 184] (And al-Malik al-Afḍal set down in his [Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn’s] place, and I went out as I did not have the strength to sit [there] in sadness, and everyone cried as they saw his son sitting in his place as a bad omen, and from that time the disease got worse).

The chronicles also mention bad omens for the Crusader leaders. One of these cases can be found in al-‘Aynī’s description of the events of the Crusade against Tunisia (1270). He quotes from a poem by a Tunisian poet mentioned under the name Ibn al-Zayyāt, who predicted the death of Louis IX (1214–1270). The same episode is also cited by al-Maqrīzī in his chronicle [al-Maqrīzī, 1997, vol. 1, ṣ. 462]. Al-‘Aynī quotes from a poem in which the poet, addressing the French king, whom he calls Fransīs, says that he will find only his own grave on Tunisian soil (taṣīr laka qabr fīhā). As the historian explains further: Wa kāna hadhā minhu fa’lan ‘alayhi fa innahu halaka wa huwa muḥāṣir lahā [al-‘Aynī, 2010[2], vol. 1, ṣ. 31] (And it was a bad omen for him [Louis IX] from him [Ibn al-Zayyāt], and he died when he was besieging it [Tunis]).

The following cases can be cited as examples of positive contexts in which f-’-l is used. For example, Ibn al-Athīr mentions that Nūr al-Dīn Zankī (1118–1174) saw a good omen in an unexpected meeting with Asad al-Dīn. As Donald Richards mentions in his translation of Ibn al-Athīr, “when Nūr al-Dīn received al-‘Āḍid’s letters in Aleppo, he sent to Asad al-Dīn to summon him. The messengers set out to seek him and met him near the gates of Aleppo, just arrived from Homs which was his fief. The reason for his arrival was that he had also received letters from the Egyptians on the same matter and had set out to go to Nūr al-Dīn. They met and Nūr al-Dīn was amazed at his immediate appearance” [Richards, 2007, p. 173]: Wa ‘ajiba nūr al-dīn min ḥuḍūrihi fī al-ḥāl wa sarrahu dhalika wa tafa’āla bihi [Ibn al-Athīr, s.d., ṣ. 1738–1739] (And Nūr al-Dīn was surprised by his immediate appearance, and it made him happy, and he saw it as a good omen).

Another significant case is cited by Ibn Shaddа̄d in his description of the siege of Acre (1189–1191) by the Crusaders during the Third Crusade. The large white falcon of the French King Philip II (1165–1223), brought by him from France, flew into the besieged Acre, where he was taken by the defenders and then presented to Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn, which was perceived by Muslims as an auspicious sign: Wa anfadhūhu ilā al-sulṭān wa qad kāna li qudūmihi rū‘a ‘aẓīma wa istibshār ‘aẓīm bi al-ẓafar bihi wa tafa’āla al-muslimūn bi dhalika [Ibn Shaddа̄d, 2015, ṣ. 109] (And [the defenders] sent it to the Sultan and it’s coming was perceived with great fascination and great joy because of its acquisition, and the Muslims saw it as a good omen).

Finally, the third category of contexts contains lexemes derived from the root y-m-n (tayammana / tayammun). This category includes only examples of positive omens. ‘Imа̄d al-Dīn al-Iṣfahа̄nī mentions that when Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn launched a great campaign against the Franks, which ended with the crushing defeat of the Crusaders at Hittin and the capture of Jerusalem in 1187, the Sultan saw good omens at the beginning of the operation: Wa tayammana bi awḍāḥ ‘irābihi al-mayāmīn [al-Iṣfahа̄nī, s.d., ṣ. 47] (And he saw a good omen in lightness of his fortunate steeds).

Another example, also related to the conquests of Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn, is given by Ibn al-Athīr. The historian mentions that the Sultan was very pleased that he was accompanied by amir of Medina al-Qāsim bin Muhannā on his campaigns against the Franks, as he believed it brought him good luck: Kāna qad ḥaḍara ‘indahu wa shahada ma‘hu mashāhidahu wa futūḥahu wa kāna ṣalāḥ al-dīn qad tabāraka bi ru’yatihi wa tayammana bi ṣuḥbatihi wa kāna yukrimuhu kathīran [Ibn al-Athīr, s.d., ṣ. 1807] (And he [al-Qāsim bin Muhannā] came to him [Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn] and witnessed with him his sights and conquests, and Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn was pleased to see him, and saw his company as a good omen, and cherished him a lot).

Temporal specifications of omens

Analyzing the cause-and-effect relationships and the connections between the future and the present in the contexts of omens in the chronicles under consideration, we should note that out of thirty five examples of bad omens, only one did not come true. It is the context of Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn’s birth. Of the analyzed monuments, it is represented in almost identical form by al-‘Ulaymī [al-‘Ulaymī, 1999, vol. 1, ṣ. 541] and al-‘Aynī: Inna al-akhawayni kharajā min tikrīt fī al-layla allātī wulida fīhā ṣalāḥ al-dīn fa tashā’amū bihi wa taṭayyarū minhu [al-‘Aynī, 2010[1], vol. 2, ṣ. 261] (The two brothers left Tikrit in the night when Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn was born, and [the people] were pessimistic about it and saw it as a bad omen). In this case, the fact that Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn’s father and uncle left Tikrit on his birthday was initially perceived as a bad omen, but the great fate of the future Sultan showed that the omen was perceived incorrectly.

In turn, when it comes to good omens, in most of the contexts, there are no causal relationship between omens and upcoming events, i.e. a historian simply mentions the fact that something was seen as a good sign. Moreover, out of fifteen examples of good omens, in two cases, bad events occurred, such as in the aforementioned case of Philip II’s falcon, which flew over to the Muslim side. Despite this good omen, the Acre fell into the hands of Crusaders. Another case when the good omen did not come true is the case of the arrival of the last Ayyubid Sultan Tūrān Shāh (d. 1250) in Egypt. Ibn Taghrī Birdī cites this context with reference to Sibṭ ibn al-Jawzī (1185–1256): Wa naṣara allāh al-islām fī yawm dukhūlihi fa tayammana al-nās bi ṭal‘atihi [Ibn Taghrī Birdī, 1976, vol. 6, ṣ. 364] (And Allah gave victory to Islam the day of his coming, and the people saw his appearance as a good omen). Although initially the arrival of Tūrān Shāh at the time of the victory over the armies of the Seventh Crusade was perceived as a good sign, the actions and policies of this leader began to cause discontent, and soon he was killed by the Mamluks, which marked the fall of the Ayyubid dynasty in Egypt.

Another significant point is the use of different terms by historians when describing the same event. This aspect is well illustrated by the description of the omen of Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn's death, which we mentioned in the previous paragraph. This passage is the most frequent and occurs in five of the eight chronicles reviewed². When describing this event, chroniclers use the following terms: Ibn Shaddа̄d uses tafā’ul [Ibn Shaddа̄d, 2015, ṣ. 184], al-Iṣfahа̄nī resorts to both taṭayyara and fa’l [al-Iṣfahа̄nī, s.d., ṣ. 326], al-‘Aynī uses taṭayyara and fa’l as al-Iṣfahа̄nī [al-‘Aynī, 2010[1], vol. 2, ṣ. 271], al-‘Ulaymī employs only taṭayyara [al-‘Ulaymī, 1999, vol. 1, ṣ. 539], and Ibn Taghrī Birdī uses tafā’ul as Ibn Shaddа̄d [Ibn Taghrī Birdī, 1976, vol. 6, ṣ. 51]. It is important to note that Ibn Shaddа̄d and al-Iṣfahānī, being witnesses of the events described, both speak of a “bad omen”, but use different terms. Later historians, quoting them, also use different terms to describe this episode.

It is also crucial that although among the considered monuments there are chronicles of various types, khiṭaṭ, biographies and faḍа̄’il, there is no difference between them in terms of the number and typology of omen contexts (Fig. 1). It is also common among all the chroniclers under consideration that the number of negative omens tends to outnumber the positive ones, with only Ibn Shaddа̄d's work featuring an equal score. These conditions indicate the uniformity of attitudes towards the phenomenon of omens in Islamic historiography during the period under study.

Of the authors considered, only Abū al-Faraj Ibn al-Jawzī and Ibn al-Athīr give an introduction about the purposes of their works and the specifics of historical knowledge, but they do not mention the concept of omens. At the same time, al-‘Aynī addresses this issue, but already in middle of chronicle through a quotation: Al-nabī ṣallā allāh ‘alayhi wa sallama kāna yuḥibbu al-fa’l wa yakruhu al-ṭīra wa afḍal mā yakūnu al-tafā’ul min kalām allāh [al-‘Aynī, 2010[2], vol. 3, ṣ. 393] (The Prophet, may God bless him and grant him peace, loved fa’l and hated ṭīra, and the best good omens are from the words of God). In this author's work, we also observe the largest number of omen contexts, but at the same time he is the one who has the largest and most detailed part of text devoted to the period from 1096 to 1291 (489/490-690/691 AH). Therefore, the number of omens per unit of text is approximately proportional to that in other chronicles considered in this study.

Another important feature is that in the considered chronicles there are significantly more negative contexts than positive ones (Fig. 2). Precisely, 35 of the 50 contexts are negative. This can be explained by the fact that negative events, which symbolize the inevitability of doom, have a greater impact on participants and witnesses of what is happening, as well as on historians subsequently describing these events. In this regard, it is also important who sees the omen described in the text. Most often, these are abstractly ‘people present’, less often a participant in the events described, and, finally, very rarely the chronicler himself, who post factum concludes that something was an omen of some events.

From the point of view of the timeline, an omen can come true both almost immediately and over the years. Thus, the omens in the chronicles indicate the linearity of time, defining its vectoriality and irreversibility of its forward movement. Finally, it is important to note that historians likely recorded omens as manifestations of God's will. This phenomenon appears to be linked to the close relationship between theology and history in Islamic culture. Islamic historiography, in addition to pre-Islamic tribal narratives (akhbа̄r and ansа̄b), is based on a complex of Abrahamic traditions and the necessity to record the history of the early Islamic community with the focus on the actions and teachings of Muhammad, which served as a model for future generations of Muslims.

Conclusions

Summing up the analysis, it should be noted that to denote omens in the Islamic chronicles describing the history of the Crusades, three main groups of lexemes are used: taṭayyara / taṭayyur / ṭīra, fa’l / tafā’ala / tafā’ul and tayammana / tayammun. At the same time, lexemes from the root ṭ-y-r make up slightly more than half of the identified contexts and all appear negative, contexts with the root f-’-l are divided exactly in half into positive and negative, and, finally, the smallest number of contexts with the root y-m-n all bear a good meaning. It is also important that 70% of omen contexts portend bad events. The explanation behind this might be that the certainty of the misfortunes happening has a greater impact on those who witness them. Furthermore, it is important that bad omens always come true, except for one thing, in the case of the birth of Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn. The passages about good omens in turn predominantly do not provide causal relationships with specific events that happened later, thus they merely describe good signs seen by the historical figures.

As for the space-time continuum, it is crucial that the omen can come true almost immediately or years later, but always in order of the present-future sequence. Thus, the omens in the chronicles indicate the linearity of time and determine the irreversibility of its progressive movement. This circumstance is principal for the further study of the duality of time in Islamic culture, embracing both linear timeline and the pre-Islamic concept of the Absolute time (al-dahr).

A comparison of the attitude of the early Islamic tradition to omens with the results of the study of the 12^th to 15^th centuries chronicles provides the following points. Though omens in Islamic culture have been important since pre-Islamic times and are closely related to the concept of time and predestination [Larsen, 2010, p. 24], in historical writings, the topic of predestination does not appear in the context of omens. The second observation is that though T. Fahd writes that fa’l is predominantly a good omen [Fahd, 1966, p. 436], while ṭīra is bad (and it appears to describe good and bad omens in the hadiths respectively as well), for considered historians, fa’l is equally bad and good, with the good omen distinctively being described by the word tayammun.

As for the historical events in connection with which omens are most often mentioned, the largest number of passages are associated with Ṣalāḥ al-Dīn, making the two episodes of his biography most frequent of the omen contexts: the omen that he will never return to Egypt (four out of eight chronicles) and the omen of his death (five out of eight chronicles).