Демографические процессы в Пакистане
History of demographic processes in Pakistan
Ключевые слова: Пакистан, население, перепись, сельское хозяйство, занятость, миграция, поступления из-за рубежа
Аннотация
В статье проанализированы демографические процессы, протекавшие в Пакистане на протяжении всей его истории в ХХ и XXI вв. Основное внимание уделено росту населения страны, в первую очередь после раздела Пакистана на собственно Пакистан и Бангладеш в 1971 г. Акцент сделан на исследовании предварительных результатов последней по счету переписи населения страны в 2017 г.; отмечена значительная недооценка численности населения страны после переписи 1998 г. Исчислены отдельно по десятилетиям среднегодовые темпы роста населения, которые не падают в среднем ниже 2.4% в год. Неутешительные демографические прогнозы свидетельствуют об опасности дальнейшего значительного роста населения Пакистана в средне- и долгосрочной перспективе, что, в свою очередь, может привести к обострению продовольственной проблемы. Одной из основных причин быстрого роста населения Пакистана является крайне слабое выполнение Программы планирования семьи и сильное влияние религиозных традиций, препятствующих широкому использованию контрацептивных средств.
Keywords: Pakistan, population, Census, agriculture, employment, migration, remittances
Abstract
The article analyzes demographic processes in Pakistan throughout its history from 1947 up to 2017. The author focuses on the considerable growth of the country's population, first of all after Pakistan disintegration in 1971. The article examines preliminary results of the last Population Census conducted in 2017, with the accent on a significant underestimation of the country's population after the Pakistan Population Census 1998. Average annual population growth rates are calculated separately for decades and they were not less than 2.4% on average. The demographic forecast indicates a real danger of further significant growth of Pakistan population in the medium and long terms. That growth, in turn, may lead to food shortage. The main reasons for the rapid growth of the population of Pakistan are an extremely poor implementation of the Family Planning Programme and Muslim traditions that impede widespread use of contraceptives.
The author analyzes the employment in Pakistan and shows a clear discrepancy between the contribution of agriculture in GDP (20% in the second decade of the twenty first century) and the share of employed in agriculture that engages 42 percent of labour force. A comparatively high level of unemployment and underemployment exceeding 10 percent on average in the beginning of the twenty first century remains a strong challenge, although official data shows unemployment in Pakistan at the level of 4 percent. The author also treats migration processes, the first wave after the disintegration of British India in 1947 and the second wave of emigration starting from the first half of the 1970s, to Muslim oil-producing countries. Currently, there are at least 9 millions overseas Pakistanis working around the globe and sending remittances of about 20 billion US$ to Pakistan annually, which is almost equal to export earnings.
Как цитировать
Каменев С. Н. Демографические процессы в Пакистане // Восток (Oriens). 2018. № 3. С. 133–147. DOI: 10.31857/S086919080000051-3.
How to cite
Sergey Kamenev History of demographic processes in Pakistan // Vostok (Oriens). 2018. No. 3. Pp. 133–147. DOI: 10.31857/S086919080000051-3.
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