РОССИЯ И ИСЛАМСКИЙ МИР: ДИНАМИКА ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОГО И ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОГО ПОТЕНЦИАЛОВ
ROSSIYa I ISLAMSKIJ MIR: DINAMIKA IZMENENIJ DEMOGRAFIChESKOGO I POLITIChESKOGO POTENCIALOV
Аннотация
Динамический аспект сравнительного демографо-политического анализа имеет особое значение вследствие разной скорости естественного движения населения в отдельных странах и регионах, а также существенной роли миграций в современном мире. Демографические процессы, нередко выступая объектом целенаправленной политики, сохраняют характер независимой переменной, влияющей на возможности различных сил, действующих на мировой арене. Актуальность представленного в статье исторического и футурологического обзора взаимоотношений России и исламского мира через призму демографических процессов обусловлена повышенным вниманием общественных и государственных кругов страны к сегодняшнему этапу и перспективам ее взаимодействия с миром ислама.
Abstract
The article deals with historical and futurological trends characterizing the demographic and political potential of Russia in comparison with the Muslim world. A complex demographo-political analysis reveals that the constantly growing population of the Russian empire between 1700 and 1900 coincided with the decline of the Islamic powers and at the beginning of the twentieth century the Russian population was only two times less than the Muslim population of the entire world. The picture has started changing dramatically during the past century especially in its second half. By the beginning of the twenty first century the population of the present day Russia has become one tenth of the global Muslim population. According to the forecasts, the ratio between the Russian and Muslim population would be one to twenty by 2050. The Russian Federation would face the belt of thickly populated Muslim countries to the south and south-east from its borders. The author touches upon the issue of the Muslim population in Russia. Starting from the remark that the Russian state (Muscowy) was the first in the world to have a sizeable Muslim minority he discloses the rise in the Muslim numbers in the USSR after the World War II. The proportion of Muslims permanently living in Russia is rather modest presently (around 10 percent) but most probably it will grow to some 20-25 percents in the coming 25-50 years. The demography is not the only and by no means a decisive factor in the world power game. But it exerts an influence on it. Some aspects of the correlation between international demography and global politics are dealt with in the article. The author puts forward the thesis that the demographic strength of the world Muslim community does not correspond fully to its political power. That might help in creating the preconditions for disturbances in future, and Russia as well the whole mankind should learn to find a common ground with the moderate forces among Muslims in order to maintain the momentum of growth and stability.
Как цитировать
Белокреницкий В. Я. РОССИЯ И ИСЛАМСКИЙ МИР: ДИНАМИКА ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОГО И ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОГО ПОТЕНЦИАЛОВ // Восток (Oriens). 2008. № 3. С. 95–110.
How to cite
Vyacheslav Y. Belokrenitsky ROSSIYa I ISLAMSKIJ MIR: DINAMIKA IZMENENIJ DEMOGRAFIChESKOGO I POLITIChESKOGO POTENCIALOV // Vostok (Oriens). 2008. No. 3. Pp. 95–110.