Socio-Economical Developments and Structural-Demographic Risks Prognosis for East African Nations (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda)

Andrey Korotayev , Julia Zinkina

Vostok/Oriens '2013, №1

The paper concerns the risks of sociopolitical instability emergence for three East African countries (Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda) which are currently trying to escape from the Malthusian trap. We offer a cognitive model of the emergence of such risks that pays particular attention to demographic indicators and urbanization processes, especially to the “youth bulge” and rapid growth of urban population forecasted by the UN. There are various development scenarios for these countries for the coming decades. Serious political agency seems required to avoid or at least mitigate the risks of sociopolitical destabilization.

Keywords: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, sociopolitical instability, risks forecasting

Pages: С. 105–118

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