Articles

Energy Development Forecast for the Asian and African nations to 2050

Vostok/Oriens '2016, №2

 
This article attempts to forecast energy development in the East – the main driving force of the world economy in the immediate future. The forecast is based on an estimate of the Eastern countries primary energy needs, which determine the volume of energy resources to be purchased and the amount of funds to be channeled into the energy sector. Methods used by the author were drawn up by the International Energy Agency on the basis of a comparison between two principal indicators – energy intensity of the GDP and per capita energy consumption. A result of these calculations are the following conclusions: energy in the East will retain its carbon-based nature in the near future; the region, remaining the leading producer of primary energy, will turn into its major consumer; both net exporters and net importers will be more dependent on external markets; technological modernization of energy sector in most Eastern countries will demand huge investments.

Keywords: TPES/GDP, TPES/population, energy demand, energy supply, energy investment, final energy consumption, energy balance

Pages: С. 150–160