Articles

Forecast Scenarios for the World Economy up to 2050

Vostok/Oriens '2015, №4

 
The article presents a set of forecast scenarios of the world economy. This forecasting technique has shown its effectiveness in a long term forecasting. The set includes forecasts of population growth, agricultural production, and fuel and power balance (first level scenarios). On the basis of these forecasts integrated forecasts are worked out. Some first level scenarios coincide with integrated scenarios but some others do not. Two level set of scenarios demonstrates that in perspective up to 2050 an important world trend is direction of globalization change. New industrialization in the West, new technological development, population ageing and natural decline, growing inter-cultural conflicts under multicultural policy in Europe and North America may push the West to isolationism.

Keywords: forecast scenarios, two level set of forecast scenarios population growth, agricultural production, energy industry

Pages: С. 147–153